Whether it's a starter's strikeout line against a whiff-prone lineup or a hitter's total-bases number in a hitter's park, Prop Season grades the matchup, projects the number off a backtested model, and shows the hit-rate history. For every MLB prop you get the same four things — and never a pick.
Open the MLB board →an A+ to C− letter for how the opponent defends this exact stat (grey C means no edge either way — never a pick).
the model's own number for the prop — our projected value and hit probability, built from a backtested formula.
the STREAK / L5 / L10 / L20 / season splits plus a per-game bar chart against the line, so you see how often it has actually landed.
an AI blurb that ties the grade, the projection, and the history together in a sentence.
What you will never see: we never name a side, never call an over or under, and never show a bet-confidence or edge grade. Prop Season gives you the matchup, the formula, the history, and the read — the decision is yours.
Each is graded on how the opponent defends that exact stat, projected off a backtested model, and backed by STREAK / L5 / L10 / L20 / season hit-rate splits with a per-game bar chart against the line. The MLB board runs Opening Day through October, rebuilt daily on MLB Stats API and Baseball Savant data.
Prop Season covers MLB props — strikeouts, hits, total bases, home runs — with a matchup grade, a model projection, and historical hit-rate splits for each. No picks, no sides: the tool gives you the read and you make the call.
Yes. The strikeout model rates the arm by a whiff-blended K% and combines it with the opposing lineup's strikeout rate to project strikeouts for the start, alongside the STREAK/L5/L10/L20/season hit rates.
Free MLB Stats API and Baseball Savant Statcast data — strikeout and whiff rates, expected batting average, barrels, park and weather. Every model change clears a backtest before it ships.
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